IM Predictions for 2007

[Jeff]

This is always a fun time to look ahead and forecast what will happen in the coming year. I've been seeing a lot of predictions, and thought I'd share some of my own, as well as a few from some of the industry pundits.


Here are my predictions for 2007, in no particular order,

Google Talk will (finally) connect to AIM. Sure, the speculation goes all the way back to 2005, when Google acquired a 5% stake in America Online, but 2007 will be the year that it all comes to fruition. And with one of the former lead programmers for AIM, Justin Uberti, now working for Google up in their Kirkland, WA office (where they work on Google Talk), it all kind of makes sense.

Geo-awareness will become hip. Yeah Meetro has been doing this for a while now, as has Google's Dodgeball service, and others, but as a means to help people get together with their friends ("where you at?), this kind of service, coupled with online presence and messaging will be what everyone wants. The MySpace crowd will use it for impromptu gatherings; parents will use it to keep tabs on their kids; and predators will be shut out by smarter privacy controls.

Phones and software for mobile devices will make VoIP accessible. Your mom still won't know that VoIP means Voice over IP (or what that means), but the proliferation of devices made for Skype, WLM, and Yahoo voice chat will make VoIP easier and more common. These phones were all over CES last January, and now the prices are reasonable, and wireless access points in the home commonplace. It'll be a hot gift next Christmas.

What others are predicting...

According to David Girouard, VP and General Manager at Google Enterprise, Google Talk's VoIP capabilities will be extended to integrate with phone systems. Not really a prediction, but a promise.

John Dvorak posits that Skype and it's clones have become "...so popular that the various phone companies offering Internet connectivity saw it as a threat to their core business, although they were already gouging the customers for Internet connectivity. With EV-DO, most contracts forbid using Skype, so the mobile-phone providers can double-gouge the customer. Apparently, the once-powerful public utilities commissions that used to protect consumers against this nonsense have evolved into lapdogs for these jokers. Maybe the public will wake up someday and protect itself, and perhaps Skype will be the triggering mechanism. Seems like a trend to me."

Corporate IM security and compliance supplier Akonix predicts that "2007 will see a dramatic increase in legal actions against employers for hostile workplace and sexual harassment claims stemming from inappropriate use of IM at work. Dubbed the 'Foley Syndrome' after former Congressman Mark Foley's infamous indiscretions over IM, the harassment of colleagues over IM will likely become front-page news during 2007."

What are your predictions for instant messaging, chat, VoIP and BigBlueBall in 2007?

[WhiteMateria]

.....

[Nick Matina]

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[jesusfreakrkg]

I'm holding my fingers for the AIM + Google Talk deal to finally work out.

What I also want is for Avatar compatibility between WLM & Y!M... but would I be correct that won't happen until Windows Vista's build for Yahoo! Messenger?

[Jeff]

We're all waiting with baited breath for the AIM+Google interoperability.

As for the WLM/Yahoo Messenger avatar compatibility, it's not in the current alpha build of the Vista messenger, but talking to the product manager, it sounds like they intend to support this eventually.

[jesusfreakrkg]

so will the rest of us not upgrading to vista and only have XP? will we never get avatar support between the 2?

[Jeff]

@jesusfreakrkg - I asked about the feature, and they didn't say it was limited to Vista. I suspect if they get it working in Vista they'll get it working in XP as well.

[MrEggsalad]

My IM Predictions for 2007:

Google Talk plus AIM will happen, and Yahoo and Microsoft will gain even more features with each other to compete back. One of those features will be webcam, making Yahoo/Microsoft all the better and almost leaving Google Talk/AIM in the dust with their only supporting text and buddy icons.

Skype will stay so nothing else can connect to it, while other VoIP companies will allow more connectivity and eventually have something that seriously makes people think "Is Skype worth it?" Those features will include FREE voicemail and connection to other IM services. I know there have been some implimentations of that already, but this will have just some quality that makes it so great.

The messengers that help you find people based on where you live I feel will slowly die out. What will come of that though, is the compaines like AOL, Yahoo, and Microsoft implimenting that feature into their own products as an addon for AOL and Yahoo, and an actual feature for Microsoft.

Web Messengers will start to become as numerous as the multiprotocal IMs, with Meebo always leading the way.

And of course, Google Talk for Mac will come around the time of GT + AIM.

So there ya have it, that's what Eggy thinks will happen.

[Spike]

I say... they all pull a fast one over on us. MSN and AIM become interoperable (while Microsoft acquires AOL/TW) while breaking away from Yahoo! who, in their fit and rage, decide to team up With Google Talk to be the "Search Engine IM Force... Team-Thing". Yeah, that's right.

[Jon8RFC]

• I predict that GTalk will continue to increase in popularity. I predict that it will offer new, handy features that interact with other google services in a unique and user-friendly way.
• I predict that the new generation of AIM (Triton/6.0)--which offers a user-friendly way to create plugins--will spur up some activity with amateur programmers, making plugins for Triton/6.0. I don't think the userbase will increase as much as it has in past years due to the popularity of webservices such as myspace and facebook; it also won't increase much due to the influence of a new operating system release, which I mention later on.
• I predict that the Yahoo Messenger userbase won't gain many new users. I don't think that it will lose many users, either.
• I predict that the MSN Messenger/Windows Live Messenger userbase will increase largely over the year as Windows Vista spreads and new computers with Vista are purchased.
• I predict that IM programs will continue to migrate to cell phones, but make greater strides in popularity, features and functionality as more phones boast full-QWERTY keyboards. I predict that cell phones will continue to become more of a text-based method of staying in touch, and IM programs will be essential to surpass the text-messaging character limit. With more QWERTY keyboards on cell phones, the "fun factor" should increase quite a bit.
• I predict that a new breed of all-in-one IM programs will be created to provide webservice management and communication. An all-in-one for friendster, facebook, myspace--and all the other sites that promote web-based communication--might make a welcomed appearance this year. Programs such as Trillian, Miranda and GAIM all attempt to make a conglomeration--of MSN, AIM, Yahoo, IRC, ICQ, etc--so that users have a central place and single program to use multiple chat services simultaneously; one for webservices, especially with a new chat service to unite and search for others among all webservices, could be one of the most successful new chat clients we've seen in many years.

I'm most excited about phone-IMing because I already use my phone as an emergency backup for driving directions, and would like to use it for chatting again. I was excited when I was first able to use AIM on my phone a few years ago, but without a QWERTY keyboard, it just became frustrating. I want my phone to remain a phone, look like a phone, and act like a phone...but at the same time, I want it to be a Blackberry or a PC in disguise.